Good morning, and welcome back to CFB Roundup from CFB Home – the first daily newsletter that’s all college football, all the time with no bias, no slant, and no fluff.

TODAY’S SCHEDULE:

Betting Information as of time of writing

ESPN’s Updated Predictions for National Championship

ESPN’s SP+ has updated its predictions for the CFP and the 8 remaining teams, with the following odds for each of the 8 remaining teams:

1. Ohio State – 19.8% (+7.3%)

2. Texas – 19.6% (+2.4%)

3. Oregon – 17.6% (-2.8%)

4. Penn State – 14.5% (+5.6%)

5. Georgia – 14.2% (-2.4%)

6. Notre Dame – 13.1% (+4.2%)

7. Boise State – 0.8% (-0.3%)

8. Arizona State – 0.4% (-0.2%)

CFP Odds from Perspective of Sportsbook

Looking at FanDuel’s latest odds to win the CFP National Championship does tell a slightly different story from the ESPN odds above, with the following odds for each of the teams.

Note, the percentages listed below are after accounting for the “hold,” or FanDuel’s house edge that it gives itself:

1. Texas: +310 (21.4% after accounting for FanDuel’s house edge)

2. Ohio State: +330 (20.4%)

3. Oregon: +480 (15.13%)

4. Georgia: +480 (15.13%)

5. Penn State: +500 (14.62%)

6. Notre Dame: +700 (10.97%)

7. Arizona State: +6500 (1.33%)

8. Boise State: +8500 (1.02%)

Based on this, the two teams being most undervalued by FanDuel and sports bettors according to ESPN’s metrics are Oregon, Notre Dame, Arizona State, and Boise State, with Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, and Penn State slightly overvalued by FanDuel and sports bettors.

Alabama Transfer RB Justice Haynes Commits to Michigan

Alabama transfer RB Justice Haynes committed to Michigan out of the transfer portal recently, choosing the Wolverines over interest from Ole Miss, South Carolina, Ohio State, and other big programs.

According to the On3 portal rankings, Haynes was the top running back available in the portal.

Haynes appeared in 25 games while with Alabama, with 616 career rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns on 104 carries. He also has 99 career receiving yards on 17 catches.

Back in the 2023 class, Haynes was ranked 33rd nationally and 2nd at the RB position, and his stock has not gone down much, if at all, since, making this a great pickup for the Wolverines.

Marshall Transfer CB Josh Moten Has Signed with Southern Miss

Southern Miss got a big pickup on Christmas as CB Josh Moten has followed Coach Huff from Marshall to Southern Miss.

Even though he is going from one Sun Belt program to another, Moten is a top talent, as he was ranked as the second best CB in the transfer portal.

Moten was a former 4-star recruit who went to Texas A&M. After transferring, though, he appeared in 25 games for Marshall, with 68 tackles, a tackle for loss, 6 interceptions, a pick-six, and 11 passes defended.

3-Star QB Jacob Bell Commits to Indiana on Christmas

3-Star QB Jacob Bell committed to Indiana and Coach Cignetti on Christmas morning.

For Bell, he was most impressed with seeing what Coach Cignetti was able to do in such a short time at the helm of the Hoosiers’ program, and he wanted to be a part of that going forward.

Bell was previously committed to Ball State, but took a visit to Indiana earlier in December. Bell ranks as high as the 61st ranked QB in the country, rating as a fairly modest 3-star.

For Indiana, this is the Hoosiers’ 23rd commitment overall for a class which ranks 50th nationally and 14th in the Big Ten.

Other Commitments/Decommitments

3-Star (85) CB Ahmyri McGee-Hall commits to Sacramento State

3-Star (84) ATH Zhaiel Smith commits to New Mexico

Unrated IOL Braylan Henderson commits to Fresno State